MIND THE GAP NOW! JEAN-PIERRE MURRAY-KLINE TALKS ABOUT THE UN EMISSIONS GAP REPORT (JANUARY 2023)

It took me so long to read the United Nations “Closing Window” report, I was worried by the time I would be done, Global Warming would be over. This points to one of the problems on the subject, information is simply overwhelming and there is too much of it. People are inherently reluctant to read pages of doom and gloom, and this is one of the root causes why the severity of this crisis is not being shared like it needs to be.

In business I encourage systems that provide only the information needed at that time specifically. ‘Overproviding’ can result in information overload and that has a negative effect. You can lose deals, bore people to death or just create an impression you are too taxing to work with.

With that said, the UNs Closing Window Report is an exceptional document that offers a great update and overview of everything that is potting and needs to immediately be done. My November 2021 article called “Ignorance is not bliss” is about the UNs Red Flag report and worth a read as well. Either reports I am happy to present in person. For my readers, let me offer some nuggets.

Gap. Many Nations have not managed to achieve their promises since the Paris Agreement or COP26, leaving a huge gap between where we actually are today, and where we needed to be. If we do not plug this hole, we will have no choice but to brace for the worse case scenarios our scientists have outlined. A pandemic, war, politics and economic factors are given as excuses. In my opinion, it is ignorance that has caused the biggest problem because not knowing the facts creates an environment for herd mentality to thrive, and if the flock heads off in the wrong direction and gains enough momentum, we will be dealing with an unstoppable force against an immovable object. The devastation and risks require their own article.

The anticipated global temperature increase is now between 1.8 and 2.8 degrees. 2.4 – 2.6 degrees is probably what we need to be prepared for by the year 2100. We have slipped up by focusing on the year 2100 or what is going to happen in a hundred years or so. Humans are not programmed to think so far in advance so we automatically lose interest and priority diminishes.

     Side Nugget: Did you know, genetically we are not really meant to live past 38 years?

This is about you. Let’s talk about a year that we can relate to, and also mentioned several many times in the report. That is year 2030. I prepared this article in December 2022, but if you read it only in the start of 2023, you only have 7 years. Think about how little time that is, and now try to fathom that within that short period of time we have to involve every country and:

• come up with a plan,
• agree to the plan,
• execute.

It takes a country around 6 years to prepare to host the Olympics. The plan to battle Climate Change needs to cover far more areas of focus than an international sports tournament. Immediately and simultaneously we have to address sectors:

• Electricity,
• Transport,
• Food,
• Financial,
• Industry.

Sectors creating (directly and indirectly) the greatest damage are transportation and then food. The USA, Russia, China and the European Union have made and continue to do the most damage. So far, the only sector that has really made strides that could perhaps be commended is the electricity sector. (South Africa not included).

The Plan. Nations have made promises and agreed to objectives that vary in criteria, enforcement, and period of time for implementation. There are some conditional and unconditional objectives. In the report you will hear several phrases repeated like NDCs, but there are many others, and all these details have one common purpose, and that is plot our targets and path to slow down Climate Change. Let me repeat, ‘slow it down’. Only once that’s done can we look at reversing and fixing.

‘Net zero’ is the first ‘destination’ on our journey and that is what we need to achieve by 2030. Please remember that if we achieve this objective, we still need to plan for a planet that is about 2.5 degrees hotter by the year 2050 and the effects on ecosystems, every person, home, business, community, and country will be extreme. Global Warming is going to lead to loss of jobs, properties, businesses, homes and increase the poverty gap. There will be some opportunities but few afforded to the poorest of the poor.

I have to talk about a ‘just transition’, a phrase in the report and also doing the rounds in the media. The words make me nervous, and whiff of political red tape and bullies. Those who declare what is ‘just’ are in many instances those who control funding. The report mentions that about 6 trillion USD is needed a year to get started. We need to avoid the cost transitioning into debt. The ‘Loss and Damages Fund’ is a wonderful concept, but again I am nervous what conditions might be applied. 85% of the global population is in developing nations, and they only control around 36% of global GDP. Poor nations need to try and avoid lock in decisions and selling their future to banks and other nations.