MIND THE GAP NOW! JEAN-PIERRE MURRAY-KLINE TALKS ABOUT THE UN EMISSIONS GAP REPORT (First published January 2023)
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CLOSING THE GAP.
It took me so long to read the United Nations “Closing Window” report; I was worried that by the time I would be done, Global Warming would be over. This points to one of the problems on the subject: information is simply overwhelming, and there is too much of it. People are inherently reluctant to read pages of doom and gloom, and this is one of the root causes why the severity of this crisis is not being shared as it needs to be.
In business, I encourage systems that provide only the information needed at that time specifically. ‘Overproviding’ can result in information overload, which has a negative effect. You can lose deals, bore people to death, or just create an impression that you are too taxing to work with.
With that said, the UN’s Closing Window Report is an exceptional document that offers a great update and overview of everything that is happening and needs to be done immediately. My November 2021 article called “Ignorance is not bliss” is about the UN’s Red Flag report and is worth a read as well. For my readers, let me offer some nuggets.
Gap. Many nations have not managed to achieve their promises since the Paris Agreement or COP26, leaving a huge gap between where we actually are today and where we need to be. If we do not plug this hole, we will have no choice but to brace for the worst-case scenarios our scientists have outlined. A pandemic, war, politics, and economic factors are given as excuses. In my opinion, it is ignorance that has caused the biggest problem because not knowing the facts creates an environment for herd mentality to thrive, and if the flock heads off in the wrong direction and gains enough momentum, we will be dealing with an unstoppable force against an immovable object. The devastation and risks require their own article.
The anticipated global temperature increase is now between 1.8 and 2.8 degrees. 2.4 – 2.6 degrees is probably what we need to be prepared for by the year 2100. We have slipped up by focusing on the year 2100 or what is going to happen in a hundred years or so. Humans are not programmed to think so far in advance, so we automatically lose interest.
We need to talk about Climate Change in the context of our imaginable lifetime. Let me be very clear, a great deal of drama is going to happen in your lifetime and even more so with your children, regardless of what we do now. Sorry, but that’s the truth.
While the data we have is not always ‘real-time’ and there are a few gaps here and there, the fact is that there is more information today than ever before, but more importantly, everything we need to do what must be done is already available, including technical solutions. It is the WILL that is missing.
If we act immediately and with vigor, the global spectacle will not be so extreme that we cannot recover. You must appreciate that any increase in the global temperature of about 1.5 degrees in such a short span of time is really bad! If you approach 3 degrees, it gets catastrophic and could also set off a cascade effect. There is a tipping point where Mother Nature will have had enough and hit the reboot button on the environment. It is believed that this point is around 2.8 degrees, and every ecosystem around the world will then need to adapt or die. Most will not survive, and we will be faced with a food and migration crisis of epic proportions.
This is about you. Let’s talk about a year that we can relate to and also mentioned several many times in the report. That is year 2030. I prepared this article in December 2022, but if you read it only at the start of 2023, you only have 7 years. Think about how little time that is, and now try to fathom that within that short period of time we have to involve every country to:
It takes a country around 6 years to prepare to host the Olympics. The plan to battle Climate Change needs to cover far more areas of focus than an international sports tournament. Immediately and simultaneously, we have to address sectors:
- Electricity,
- Transport,
- Food,
- Financial,
- Industry.
Sectors creating (directly and indirectly) the greatest damage are transportation and then food. The USA, Russia, China, and the European Union have made and continue to do the most damage. So far, the only sector that has really made strides that could perhaps be commended is the electricity sector. (South Africa not included).
The Plan. Nations have made promises and agreed to objectives that vary in criteria, enforcement, and period of time for implementation. There are some conditional and unconditional objectives. In the report, you will hear several phrases repeated like NDCs, but there are many others, and all these details have one common purpose, and that is to plot our targets and path to slow down Climate Change. Let me repeat, ‘slow it down’. Only once that’s done can we look at reversing and fixing.
‘Net zero’ is the first ‘destination’ on our journey, and that is what we need to achieve by 2030. Please remember that if we achieve this objective, we still need to plan for a planet that is about 2.5 degrees hotter by the year 2050, and the effects on ecosystems, every person, home, business, community, and country will be extreme. Global Warming is going to lead to the loss of jobs, properties, businesses, homes, and increase the poverty gap. There will be some opportunities, but few afforded to the poorest of the poor.
I have to talk about a ‘just transition’, a phrase in the report and also doing the rounds in the media. The words make me nervous and waft of political red tape and bullies. Those who pronounce what is ‘just’ are in many instances those who control funding. The report mentions that about 6 trillion USD is needed a year to get started. We need to avoid the cost of transitioning into debt. The ‘Loss and Damages Fund’ is a wonderful concept, but again, I am nervous about what conditions might be applied. 85% of the global population is in developing nations, and they only control around 36% of global GDP. Poor nations need to try to avoid lock-in decisions and selling their future to banks and other nations.
Facts. People are going to be forced to make some really hard decisions, and if they don’t, they are going to be forced too. Regulations and costs related to mitigating Climate Change will be unprecedented. There needs to be sacrifices. Our behavior has to change at the following levels:
- Home,
- Office,
- Community,
- Province,
- Country,
- Continent,
- Globe.
It’s no longer an option to consume as we have. Stop thinking you can eat red meat so often (sorry my Cousin, fewer braais), or water your garden in the middle of a summer’s day. Stop thinking you can allow Shell to look for fossil fuels off your coast. You have to educate yourself on this crisis and act. Acting will require extreme civil objection and resistance to government and commercial shenanigans.
You must encourage hope. Climate Change has the potential to bring people together like never before, and when we do that, we need to not only tackle our carbon footprint but also take the opportunity to deliver inequality, education, and health for all. In the next 15-30 years, we will either become the generation celebrated for humanity’s greatest moments of morality, or our legacy will be that of the most selfish generation to have ever lived, loathed by our children’s children.
Start closing that gap!
You can download the full report here:
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Who is Jean-Pierre Murray-Kline?
Jean-Pierre is a South African serial e-entrepreneur, published author, and change champion who has worked in over 300 types of industries in some capacity or another. His own online businesses have generated millions of Rands and involved sectors such as law, web & app development, events & entertainment, property, technical services, media, and tourism.
He has traveled to over 150 cities worldwide and is extremely active as a business and environmental technologist. In addition to his own projects, he researches and consults on all things online: marketing, reputation, compliance, law, and e-security, and also offers strategy workshops and scenario sessions on future thinking with a key focus on technology, the environment, and global influences.
Jean-Pierre is often asked to be a guest speaker on a variety of subjects he continuously studies and writes about.
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