Will there be Travel Agents in the Future? (January 2025)

I could write about social media and influencer marketing, but social media algorithms are so tragic at the moment that unless you visit a personal page of someone, you are very likely to never, ever see what they post. These algorithms will eventually get better, but not anytime soon. As for social media influencers, we could go see how well Louis Cole or Jack Morris and Lauren Bullen are doing, but the truth of the matter is we are more likely to appreciate something from someone we know personally over one of these well-sponsored strangers. If you already know this, you already know the most important thing about social media and we don’t need to talk about it anymore today.

I could write about data analytics, but data analytics puts people to sleep! I could write about sustainability and eco-friendly technologies, and I really would like to do that, but then there would be no time to cover blockchain technology and the Internet of Things. In fact, how can someone choose when there are so many pressing influences at play?

What I decided to do is a random lucky draw because airlines sometimes do lucky draws, and so do tourism boards. The most famous one was run by the Queensland Tourism Board in Australia, where they organized the “Best Job in the World” campaign in 2009. More recently, there is the “Win a Free Trip to Space” campaign being organized by various companies in partnership with space tourism firms. For that one, you will probably have to share the trip with Tom Cruise, who is filming on the ISS. Space tourism is another subject I could write about, but perhaps another day.

All of these subjects are noteworthy, and if you don’t know how they are going to influence your sector yet, that’s okay; neither does your boss. But then again, neither do your clients or your suppliers. That’s the reality of the situation. And it is reality that I am going to talk about—virtual and augmented reality specifically.

Now, if you do some research on this technology, which, by the way, is by no means a new technology—VR dates back to the 1950s, first used in cinema, and with AR following 10 years later to create the “Sword of Damocles,” a head-mounted display that superimposed simple graphics over the real world. Augmented reality, or AR, as a term, was first used by someone in the travel sector: Mr. Tom Caudell, a researcher from Boeing in the 1990s. What I want to share about this family of technologies, specifically for the travel and hospitality industry, is that it will usher in a ‘try before you buy’ approach, at least for a period of time. Hotels, airlines, and even Camps Bay Beach—you will be able to e-visit, experience, and interact with them before you book.

The challenges here are the capital outlay and the shelf life of the solution itself; it’s too much and probably won’t last that long. There is also the threat of the technology getting so good that people won’t bother to leave their homes anyway.

Gen Z is spending 45% of their time in some form of AR/VR, and they are meant to be our future. In Africa, over the next 50 years or so, the majority of people on this continent will be under the age of 21. We will have the youngest continent in the world. Now, we should all know that young people don’t travel a lot for work nor have the money for holidays. This must be factored into business plans when considering Africa and its potential future market.

People in France, the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, the USA, and China are all aging, so unless you want your niche to be ‘frail care holidays,’ you have to devise some solutions for the Gen Zs.

Gen Z are an equal, if not bigger, influence on the sector in the coming years than AI. (Remember, Gen Z spends nearly 50% of their waking hours online, so at least you know how to reach them with marketing).

Let’s move on to the next stop, another interesting influence, but a non-technological one this time. There are so many I could pick, but the one I have decided on is the ‘just energy transition.’ This is not about technology—not really. This movement, or trend, is about the fact that humans are going to become acutely aware of carbon impact, and for some services they are used to, they will soon need to pay ‘penalties’ for them in the form of carbon ‘taxes’ implemented via the businesses from which they wish to purchase services or experiences.

Carbon tax will be rolled out in the travel and tourism industries. In less than three years, South Africa will have regulations in place for this. I believe travel for business is going to be penalized a lot more than travel for leisure. Businesses now have alternatives—voom voom can become zoom zoom.

‘Things’ are not looking easy for business in the coming years, and we must never forget that there are now many technological ways to conduct business without leaving our home. However, there is no technological equivalent to the experience of having pizza in Rome, enjoying the warm waters of Hawaii, or seeing and touching one of the freakishly small cows in Zanzibar. Travel for leisure appears to have better prospects.

Next, I want to mention another technological influence, a positive one: voice converters or translators. One reason some people don’t travel for leisure is that the destination they want to visit is a place where people don’t speak their mother tongue. With AI and our ever-shrinking devices, the ability to speak to someone and understand them in return is already here. Google can already offer a primitive version of this.

Let’s move on to our next destination and focus on the impact of AI in the travel sector. I want to discuss four factors here, although there are many more!

The first one is chatbots and virtual assistants. I did a social media post stating that there is ChatGPT, and that there is a version of ImageGPT. I believe there will very soon be shopping and travel GPT. TravelGPT will be one of many AI service providers, all able to link to hotels, airlines, transfer companies, websites, excursion providers, and offer comparisons and the ability to book. Many will also be able to process payments, issue tickets, offer insurance, deal with certain authorities, and help with visa applications —all while you chat with it. This technology, while it sounds like a massive leap ahead, really is not, and it is inevitable.

Next, I want to mention AI dynamic pricing. I do believe this will probably be out-legislated in certain countries in the coming years. But for now, the internet is the Wild West. For those of you who don’t know, dynamic pricing AI helps airlines, hotels, and travel platforms implement dynamic pricing strategies by analyzing market demand, booking patterns, competitor prices, all in real-time. It then tweaks advertised rates to generate more revenue for their human owners. Any business in the sector that ignores this technology will struggle to compete and end up having a Kodak moment.

I believe in the next 10 to 30 years, holiday and travel companies will require far fewer people working in the travel sector, which will reduce costs for businesses, and at the same time, with the same technology, there will be an increase in overall client bookings. Just as the banking sector was told, “you won’t need a banker to bank,” the travel sector needs to be told, “you don’t need a travel agent to travel.”

The next influence I want to mention is weather or climate change. On the global risk index, the number one threat to society and our way of life, as we know it, is climate change. I cannot begin to explain in a quick article or keynote talk just how much our lives are going to change, but let me share three areas of extreme concern for the travel and hospitality sector.

The first concern is seasonal shifts. High and low seasons for tourism will be disrupted, affecting revenue and employment. The Maldives, Australia, Switzerland, Nepal, Kenya, Tanzania, Italy, and France are all having to make adjustments already, but I can assure you these changes are not enough.

This leads us to the next concern: destination viability. For some destinations, rising sea levels will literally take them off our global map. Everyone thinks it’s just the Maldives, but it’s not. Kiribati, the Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, the Seychelles, and the Solomon Islands—who knows if they will be there in 50 years? They might all go the same route as the Carteret Islands, Lohachara Island, Tegua, and Vanuatu Island. There are also all the major coastal towns to worry about: Miami, Venice, Bangkok, Dhaka, Shanghai, New Orleans, Jakarta, Alexandria, Lagos, Mumbai, New York, and Rio de Janeiro, to name just a few. What about Cape Town?

The final item on this particular route is environmental degradation, which is a major problem. All those beautiful ‘things’ on postcards, websites, or videos are going to disappear or, at the very least, look very different.

Rising temperatures, melting glaciers, coral bleaching, and the increased frequency of natural disasters such as hurricanes, wildfires, and floods will damage natural attractions and infrastructure. The Great Barrier Reef, Yellowstone National Park, the Amazon Rainforest, Mount Kilimanjaro, Victoria Falls, the Okavango Delta, and Lake Victoria—all are under threat. If there are no destinations, there is no business, and therefore, there is no future.

The tourism and travel sector is yet to apply its force and influence to become a champion in mitigating climate change threats. Not washing the towels in every hotel room daily is simply not enough. In order to lobby for change, the sector is going to have to look at itself, self-police, and self-improve.

The final subject related to money matters is the Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) trend. This is an awful concept in my mind, but I understand the appeal for the customer. There are BNPL service providers like Klarna and Afterpay that are becoming popular in various industries, including some travel services. The main benefit is that it allows consumers to spread the cost of their travel over several payments.

Let’s move on to how we lose money, or crimes, specifically e-crimes. Cybercrime is the number two risk to our civilization as we know it. It has the potential to destroy markets of entire countries, so it certainly has the ability to ruin a good travel experience. (Not many companies I talk to have an incident response plan in place for a cyber breach or any idea of how the Cyber Crimes Act of South Africa affects their operations).

What can I mention as a priority for a business, other than knowing the law? The most important is probably ransomware attacks. The hospitality sector, including hotels and travel agencies, can easily fall victim to ransomware attacks because, generally speaking, they have inadequate e-security and staff training. Cybercriminals can easily use social engineering tactics to infiltrate a company, encrypt data or the entire business system, and demand payment for its release. You would not be able to email, invoice, check guests out, call up reservation information—nothing at all.

For consumers and travelers, the biggest concern I can share involves phishing. Clients can be targeted by scammers through fake emails or websites that appear to be from legitimate travel companies. These e-scoundrels then steal their personal information or trick travelers into paying for non-existent services. This has happened to several people I know personally.

We now come to the end of my whirlwind trip and article, and I have taken us to several ‘destinations’ related to trends and digital influences. I hope anyone reading this article appreciates that all these influences should be tackled as an industry together.

Finally, the big question: will there be travel agencies in the future?

Yes, there will be, but not as they once were, and I expect far fewer people to be working in the sector. Since the advent of online bookings, there has been a steady overall decline in the percentage of human bodies in the industry. When you do scenario planning, you need to assess all the forces at play. At the moment, I see no equal or greater force to alter this trajectory. So for now, job losses should be expected. I have given you the salt; let me share some sugar.

There are two main areas where I feel travel agencies, and more specifically travel agents, still have an advantage.

The first is crisis management. A travel agent or human can show compassion or empathy, attending to that very human need for connection. I don’t think this could ever be replaced by a bot. When a bag is lost, you are stuck on an island, or some strange spider in Australia has made its home in your ear—you want to deal with a human. I use my travel agent not because they offer the best price or work faster than a PC, but because when things have gone wrong, they have been there for me.

Niche travel is also where agents outperform bots. VIP travel, space travel, and unique experiences not available on mainstream websites will remain the dominion of agents, even if there are fewer of them.

Ready to future proof? Here are five quick tips:

1. Focus on niche markets.
2. Adapt to changing consumer behavior.
3. Stay informed about trends.
4. Specialize.
5. Build strong partnerships.

The END.