DON’T RUSH INTO THINGS (JULY 2023)

Question.

I have been asked several times if the ANC will win the next election. The declining trajectory of the ANC support since 2004 will continue because they have done nothing sufficient to alter their own path. The ANC will garner the most votes in the next election, however it will be the least they have had in decades, making them winning losers. I predict the ANC will have between 41% and 47% of seats in Parliament.

We are entering an era of ‘coalition government’, a time of turbulence in our history where our future will be decided upon by ‘many chefs in the same kitchen’. These ‘chefs’ will eventually decide on a ‘menu’, and only then will the masses be served. Not everyone will like every meal, fewer will starve, and there will be less wastage. This is part of our maturing democracy and an inevitable phase that will last three to five years. The surviving political parties will be those who learn to work together.

The ANC, DA, EFF and Action SA all know the eventuality ahead, and that is why you can see political courtships starting. The DA will increase their seats to between 23% and 26%, the EFF will dwindle to between 7% and 9%, and ActionSA will get around 2% to 4%. There will be some Independents, COPE, IFP and a few other smaller parties with scattered spots across Parliament.

The ANC will try a few flings with the EFF, but they will find longer term security with the DA. The DA will continue to champion relationships with smaller parties but many of these will fail. The Public will have reduced tolerance for floor crossing, mayor ousting and other shananigans, and we might see new legislation introduced to limit instability in Councils.

Geolocation ‘strong holds’ will influence the disbursement of power, but the servicing of Voter priorities will have greater sway. There are too many priorities for one to list in a single article, but to name just a few: electricity supply, trade unions, unemployment, land and housing, infrastructure, transport, food and water security, crime, violence, health and education, racism, international relations and wars.

The Child.

I was eleven years old when South Africa had its first democratic election. I started to become aware of the awful history of my country during high school. It was in my twenties I assigned myself to learning more about the past so I could plan better for the future. My manner of thinking is not the norm compared to the ‘interim generation’ who developed their political compass over the ‘transition phase’ (apartheid to democracy), and are a generation largely less interested in the past. This period of time also included the pivotal period when Madiba was working with FW De Klerk in peace talks, and trying to prevent civil war after Chris Hani’s assassination.

The ‘outgoing generation’, those directly involved with and alive during the appalling years of apartheid, are for lack of a better phrase ‘passing on’. Those of them alive and willing to vote have a political compass inclined towards a revolutionary bearing. The liberation heroes and bad apples amongst them are a shrinking Voter base. Nothing lasts forever, and everything has its time.

While the veterans who fought to get South Africa to where it is today deserve respect, the youth of today are trying to find their own Champions. I have great aspirations and wish them luck in dealing with the many challenges we have presented them with and those still to materialize. I encourage them to direct all their energy towards the future. To end this article I want to share a 2024 Election objective I hope all South Africans share.