YOUR LAST TANK OF FUEL. IT IS COMING! THE FUTURE THINKER SAYS SO (SEPTEMBER 2022)

YOUR LAST TANK OF FUEL.
THE FUTURE OF PETROL STATIONS

I am a petrol head, which is an odd thing to be if you are also an advocate for the environment. Nevertheless, giving up my sports car for a fuel efficient one was not easy. I know the probability of the car I have today being my last liquid fuel car is very high, regardless, I am not ashamed to admit I will embrace this change without remorse. My true fix from cars is not the sound (although it is great!), it is the speed and today an e-car can achieve 0-100 kms/h in less than 3 seconds.

The Rimac Nevera and the Tesla Roadster are two options for you, although the Rimac is a tad (understatement) out of everyone’s price range, the Tesla is in line with a BMW. I will drive an e-car soon, and can’t imagine why I would ever go back to a Petrol Station again?

There are about 4800 Stations in South Africa with an annual turnover of around R220 billion. 30% of their income is generated from the shops they all have selling titbits. Fuel stations employ around 80 000 people and support either directly or indirectly around 4500 small businesses. The economic impact should this sector slow down, or shut down entirely would be dramatic and would influence every single company and home across South Africa. The landscape of our cities, towns and highways would change. Have you imagined life and business without fuel yet? It is time too.

The catalyst will be the ‘Ethical and Future Shopper’: a ‘type’ of person I hope to inspire and the reason I do this work. There are many (although their numbers are dwindling) people in ‘the sector’ and observers, that don’t believe the Future Ethical Shopper will be enough to champion change, they believe petrol and carbon based energy will be used until their dying day. An ironic notion when you consider air pollution (from related fossil fuel energy manufacturing and consumption) contributes towards 3.2 million pre-mature deaths a year, which is on par with the average of Covid at its peak.

History shows us that when there is something better (more practical, accessible and affordable), consumers shift towards that every time. The ‘petrol sector’ needs to accept the writing on the wall because the manufactures of the machines that use petrol fuels are cutting back on production with many announcing final assembly dates. I believe if this World does not suffer another natural or man-made disaster in the next decade (medium to low probability that this is avoided), we will see the last commercial petrol car come off the production belt within the next 10-15 years.

Back to the subject of your last tank of fuel.

Like me, I am sure you feel putting petrol in is a grudge purchase. Between the years of 2035 and 2040, we will have our last petrol station and many more thousands of e-cars on the road. This is an idea that excites me! There are green flags all over to support my forecast: petrol car sales are down and so are their profits, and interest in the sector in general is dwindling. The biggest flag is the increased resistance coming from the fuel sector and the political elites. No one fights harder than in their dying moments. We can see the same battle in the coal sector. Their fight is futile because citizens will not tolerate international sanctions and global ramifications so the elite can profit in their final years at the cost of our children.

What do we do with all the old Petrol Stations?

There are types of neglected buildings that stand out to me as red flags that a community is doing badly. An abandoned petrol station, a derelict place of worship, or a dirty park are prime examples a town is in real trouble. This is my warning. As the last few petrol cars are finally manufactured, thousands of fuel stations and their buildings will become redundant, and at the same time so will the many thousands of the small businesses that formed part of their supply and service chain.

The land, a lot of which is prime real estate, will need to be repurposed. I believe we will see a significant spike in commercial land sales and a massive drop in value as supply exceeds demand. Some petrol station Owners might hope to convert to the ‘new generation’ energy station offering electronic charging or a hybrid with liquid fuels or maybe even hydrogen fuel. The general consensus is most stations will be converted to include retail, mini malls, and meeting spaces, but after researching influences to the sector, and using my own noggin, my opinion on the probability on these scenarios being massively successful is low.

Hydrogen fuel cars will be less popular than e-cars in the next 10 years, and people with e-cars are not going to want to drive to a charging station when they can charge at home or gym. Leaving the only real demand I can fathom for ‘old school petrol stations’ will come from long haul trucking and if we sort out our rail issues in South Africa, there will be less need for trucks. People are going to make the shift to car-pooling, public transport, Apps and ‘click and collect cars’, or use something new and exciting that comes from the Subscription and Circular economy.

I believe in the future many people (even more so than today) will no longer travel for work or their weekly shopping. As a percentage ratio there will be less cars to people in the future and that begs the question: what on earth are we going to do with the 1.4 billion old cars we no longer use? (Perhaps a business idea there for a recycling company and Future Thinker?)

No silver lining.

Profit margins for selling electricity to e-car Owners will be substantially less than petrol. As a business person, I can’t see the appeal in terms of revenue potential. Some petrol station Owners might think they can sell more ‘things’ at their e-station to make up for the loss, but lets remember that people will travel less in the future and some of those new e-cars wont even have drivers! In short, even if you employ all the old tricks of the trade like selling coffee, providing places for children to play, public toilets and wifi, I really do believe the era of the Petrol Station has come to an end and your best chances of revenue will come from selling advertising space on your buildings.

Before the change.

Today in South Africa, out of the 380 000 vehicles on the road only 8000 are e-cars. We need to get the number of e-charging locations / stations substantially increased from the 250’ish’ locations we have today (in South Africa) to about 10 000 before we see more people buy e-cars. Here is a link to a really great App to see a live view of what is currently available but you can also use Google Maps to find e-stations. https://www.chargestations.co.za/ChargeMap.aspx?UserGroupID=facf9751-58ca-490f-8ca5-d2b433e6b2e5

Another problem is e-charging stations are unfortunately expensive and cost about R40 000 for a home unit and R700 000 for a ‘retail unit’. I believe prices will drop in the coming years, but here is a nice example link of a service provider if you are keen to try set up one today: https://www.gridcars.net/

E-car insurance, trade in value, the excessive cost of replacing e-car batteries, selling or disposing of e-cars, are all challenges that need to be ironed out.

It might help expedite uptake if we standardize the equipment we use: for example there are all sorts of charging ‘levels’: Level 1 AC (120V), Level 2 AC (240V), and DC.

Finally, and most importantly, WE need to decide to make the change! Other than that, I really have no concerns, not even charging times worry me anymore because they take between 20 and 60 minutes to allow for a charge that could get you between 300 and 500 km.

Future Thinkers, this change is inevitable. If you fill up your tank once a month, you have about 180 (give or take a few) more tanks before it’s your last one, as of the month of this article being published! Oh, one final nugget: in the future, you might want to set up an e-charging station at your own home if you have space available for the public, and use it to generate extra income!

THE END

Jean-Pierre Murray-Kline

‘A Future Thinker’

The Business and Environmental Technologist.

Jean-Pierre Murray-Kline is an entrepreneur who runs several online businesses. He is a published Author who researches, consults and facilitates strategy sessions about the most important matters affecting our generation and the changes to technology, business and the environment.

Digital Architect & Scenario Planning.
Online Marketing
Keynote Talks

But wait, there is MORE!

Nuggets

Articles

Videos

All Things Online

Future Thinking

Keynote Talks

Who is Jean-Pierre Murray-Kline?

Jean-Pierre is a South African Serial Entrepreneur, Published Author and Change Champion who has worked in over 300 types of industries in some capacity or another. His own online businesses have generated millions of Rands and involved sectors including Law, Web & App Development, Events & Entertainment, Property, Technical Services, Media and Tourism.
He has travelled to over 50 cities World-Wide, and is extremely active as a Business and Environmental Technologist.
Jean-Pierre is often asked to be a Guest Speaker on any variety of the many subjects he continuously studies and writes about.